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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.