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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."